Home / Metal News / US Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Metals Show Mixed Performance, Alumina Falls Below 3,000 Yuan, Gold Price Hits New High [Overnight Market]
US Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Metals Show Mixed Performance, Alumina Falls Below 3,000 Yuan, Gold Price Hits New High [Overnight Market]
Mar 20, 2025 08:37Source:SMM
[Overnight Market: US Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Metals Show Mixed Performance, Alumina Falls Below 3,000 Yuan, Gold Price Hits New High] Overnight, both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.02% increase, while LME tin and LME zinc both fell by over 1%, with LME tin down 1.11% and LME zinc down 1.2%. SHFE tin dropped 0.95%, and SHFE copper rose 0.72%. Other metals saw minor fluctuations in % change. The main alumina contract fell 1.97% overnight, breaking below the key level of 3,000 yuan/mt, with an intraday low of 2,970 yuan/mt, marking the lowest level since December 2023.
Overnight, the overseas and domestic markets showed mixed performance. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.02% increase, while LME tin and LME zinc both fell by over 1%, with LME tin down 1.11% and LME zinc down 1.2%. SHFE tin dropped 0.95%, and SHFE copper rose 0.72%. Other metals saw minor fluctuations in % change. The main alumina contract fell 1.97% overnight, breaking below the key 3,000 yuan/mt level, with an intraday low of 2,970 yuan/mt, marking a new low since December 2023.
Most items declined, with stainless steel being the only one to rise slightly by 0.04%. Iron ore fell 0.98%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal dropped 0.63%, and coke fell 1.27%.
On March 19, COMEX gold rose 0.55% overnight, and after the March 20 opening, COMEX gold continued to climb, repeatedly hitting new historical highs. As of 8:22, COMEX gold reached a peak of $3,063.2/oz. COMEX silver fell 1.14% overnight. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.16%, while SHFE silver dropped 0.64%.
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The People's Bank of China held the 2025 Payment and Settlement Work Conference. The meeting emphasized coordinating government and market efforts to enhance regulatory efficiency in the payment industry, balancing costs and benefits to improve the quality and efficiency of payment services for the real economy, and integrating compliance with innovation to strengthen payment and clearing infrastructure. It also stressed balancing development and security to promote high-level opening-up in the payment sector and fostering a loyal, clean, and responsible payment talent team by correctly understanding the relationship between compliance and proactive action.
The General Offices of the Ministry of Transport, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Finance issued the "2025 Implementation Details for Subsidies on New Energy Urban Buses and Power Battery Replacement." Using ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds, fixed subsidies will be provided to urban bus companies for updating new energy urban buses and replacing power batteries. The average subsidy per vehicle is 80,000 yuan, and for power battery replacements, the average subsidy per vehicle is 42,000 yuan.
The US dollar rose 0.21% overnight. The US Fed kept the target range for its benchmark overnight interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% and hinted at two potential interest rate cuts later this year, each by 25 basis points, consistent with the median forecast from three months ago. The Fed also projected slower economic growth and higher inflation. Additionally, the Fed announced it would slow the pace of reducing its balance sheet. Meanwhile, the US Congress remains deadlocked over raising the government borrowing limit, posing challenges for the Fed in assessing market liquidity.
Traders still expect the Fed to cut interest rates at least twice by December, each by 25 basis points, with a 62.2% probability of at least a 25-basis-point cut in June.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday that the current uncertainty is "exceptionally high," describing the challenges Fed officials face in making new economic forecasts amid a series of new government policies. The Fed also indicated it would slow its ongoing balance sheet reduction, known as quantitative tightening. (Compiled by Wenhua)
The euro fell 0.3% against the US dollar to $1.0912, having earlier dropped to $1.086. Federal funds futures, which measure interbank unsecured overnight lending rates, indicate a 64-basis-point rate cut this year (equivalent to two rate cuts), aligning with the Fed's rate forecast released on Wednesday.
The US dollar rose 3.6% against the Turkish lira to 37.97, having earlier reached a record high of 42.
The US dollar fell 0.3% against the Japanese yen to 148.85 yen after the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged earlier on Wednesday. The BOJ maintained its short-term rate target at 0.5%, highlighting policymakers' preference to take more time to assess the impact of US tariff hikes on global economic risks, which could affect Japan's fragile economic recovery. (Compiled by Wenhua)
Today, China will release the March one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the March five-year LPR, and Hong Kong's March 20 base rate. The US will release the upper and lower limits of the federal funds rate target as of March 19, Q4 current account data, the March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, initial jobless claims for the week ending March 15, and February existing home sales annualized total. The UK will release January unemployment rate (ILO standard), March CBI Industrial Orders Balance, January three-month average earnings growth rate including bonuses, and March Bank of England base rate. Australia will release February seasonally adjusted unemployment rate and employment change data. Switzerland will release Q1 central bank policy rate, and New Zealand will release Q4 GDP annual growth rate (production method, seasonally adjusted).
Additionally, the US Fed FOMC will announce its rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak at the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee hearing. The Swiss National Bank will announce its rate decision, and the Bank of England will announce its rate decision.
Overnight, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI crude up 0.45% and Brent crude up 0.28%. Earlier, US government data showed a decline in fuel oil inventories, but the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged limited the gains.
US government data showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week to 437 million barrels, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 512,000-barrel increase. However, distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.8 million barrels to 114.8 million barrels, far exceeding the expected 300,000-barrel decline. "The EIA data showing a net decline in inventories, including oil products, is gradually bullish," said Josh Young, Chief Investment Officer at Bison Interests.
Investors are also focusing on Ukraine ceasefire negotiations. Xinhua News Agency reported on March 19 that the US White House issued a statement saying US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a phone call that morning, agreeing on a "partial ceasefire" to stop attacks on energy facilities by Russia and Ukraine. Analysts noted that this move increases the possibility of peace and could eventually bring Russian oil back to the global market. However, achieving a full ceasefire remains highly uncertain.
Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty stated, "Even if an agreement is reached, a significant increase in Russian energy exports will still take time to materialize. In the short term, the impact will mainly involve adjustments in energy flows to secure more favorable prices."
Russia, one of the world's largest oil suppliers, has seen its production decline due to restrictions on Russian energy. (Compiled by Wenhua) 
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